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FIFA 18 ONES TO WATCH INVESTMENTS UPDATE, 5 JANUARY

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MARKET OVERVIEW

As the FUT market moves into the New Year, there has been plenty to talk about. Yet, as a summary we’ll keep it as concise as we can. Generally, the price of elite players have seen a continued decline, while the end of the guaranteed inform SBCs has dropped the prices of the 83/84 golds as well.

Overall it seems the market is at a point were players are relatively cheap; however, before buying, definitely consider the uncertainty of Team of the Year, and the pack promos that will bring.

Now for the market you’re all here for, Ones to Watch. This week the OTW market has seen its fair share of ups and downs. Towards the end of the week player prices seem to lean more towards down, but with an upgraded item and potential SBC on the horizon there is still a ton to talk about!

Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.

WEEKLY RETURNS & STATS



The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.

Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.

-- Quick take: Interestingly, there were too polar ranges between players this week. It s was either large differences or narrow gaps and the likes in Romelu Lukaku, Kyle Walker and Bruma represented the former, while Franck Kessie, Douglas Costa and Alvaro Morata embodied the latter.

Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.

-- Quick take: Looking at the figure above, the most noticeable aspect of volatility came towards the bottom of the list. Federico Bernardeschi, Davinson Sanchez and Bertrand Traore all sported large figures compared to their price, so it might be time to consider them for their investment potential.

Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.

-- Quick take: Players like Alexandre Lacazette, Leonardo Bonucci and Nelson Semedo really stand out due to their high numbers, but what it’s telling you is that these cards could be poised for large price changes if the market rebounds or busts.

TOTW Shout With some many leagues on break it was up the Premier League to lead the charge for informs, and it did not disappoint! Ederson and Mohamed Salah both put in compelling performances; however the Brazilian keeper featured while the Egyptian just missed out.

IN-DEPTH DAILY ANALYSIS

For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.

BIG WINNER -- EDERSON (MANCHESTER CITY)

Winner winner, chicken dinner! The Man City shot stopper finally picked up and inform and a 89.3% return cannot be ignored, so this weeks biggest winner (by far) is Ederson. After a disappointing snub from the Team of the Group Stage we are glad to see him get some recognition.

Talking numbers, a huge volatility (~37,000) and beta (3.72) show just how much hype this Brazilian generated. For an 85-rated card that is kinda wild, and his price should settle down from where it currently is just like many other OTW who’ve received upgrade. That being said, those numbers bode extremely well if the ex-Benfica man puts in another quality performance.

His price is inflated now, but when he settles Ederson is one to monitor as another upgrade could yield huge returns!

BIG LOSER -- JAMES RODRIGUEZ (BAYERN)

A OTW weekly analysis first, but hey why not in 2018! James Rodriguez finds himself as the biggest loser for the second week in a row. There were a lot negative numbers this week, but after receive quite a few questions about him we had to highlight the Colombian.

Looking at his weekly stats, the midfield man really had tame volatility (~3000) and beta (0.25) figures. This shows that he followed the market and is evident by his price decline, but there's something deeper in those numbers. Delving deeper, those statistics might shed a hopeful light on the ex-Madridista. Both of the preceding figures are risk measures, so with lower values it could spell the end of our mans price drop meaning its a compelling time to invest if you can get in low.

Also, a positive for James is the return of Bundesliga football so don’t sleep on him.

RECAP & OUTLOOK

To wrap it up, arguably the biggest event looms in the Team of the Year which has scared players. Since they’re not buying prices have fallen. Yet, looking just beyond that to February we could see a OTW SBC for the new batch after January transfers. This could completely shock the exiting OTW items so watch this space! Some interesting final quick takes:

-- OTW traders: Lots of volatility this week and uncertainty can always lead to quick flips. Be weary of the low buyer pool though.

-- OTW investors: Now could be the ideal time to start picking up some piece before the February SBC hype really picks up.

If you're like us and can’t get enough of the market check out the Path to Glory update from earlier in the week for another look at dynamic players!

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